Matières Premières | OR | sujet : Perspectives sur l'or

Citation de : VESTA (au 11-10-2008 11:51:32)

bonjour Roque, apres le barbecue si tu as le temps de repondre a cette question : "pourquoi l'or en euro progresse et fait des plus haut alors que l'euro baisse contre le dollar"? Y a un truc qui m echappe.

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bah c est une simple regle de 3 ... :
l or valait 1000$ avec un eurus a 1.60, donc l once d or valait 1000/1.6 E = 625E
Aujourdhui, l once cote 850$, avec un eurus a 1.33, donc l once d or vaut 850/1.33 E =639E
L or s est deprecie en dollar depuis ses plus haut, mais l euro s est deprecié encore plus vite contre le dollar, donc l or s est valorisé contre l euro ...

merci roque

Citation de : Hug (au 11-10-2008 14:05:13)

Citation de : VESTA (au 11-10-2008 11:51:32)

bonjour Roque, apres le barbecue si tu as le temps de repondre a cette question : "pourquoi l'or en euro progresse et fait des plus haut alors que l'euro baisse contre le dollar"? Y a un truc qui m echappe.

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bah c est une simple regle de 3 ... :
l or valait 1000$ avec un eurus a 1.60, donc l once d or valait 1000/1.6 E = 625E
Aujourdhui, l once cote 850$, avec un eurus a 1.33, donc l once d or vaut 850/1.33 E =639E
L or s est deprecie en dollar depuis ses plus haut, mais l euro s est deprecié encore plus vite contre le dollar, donc l or s est valorisé contre l euro ...

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je le vois bien aussi et c est justement cela que je ne comprends pas, je vois aussi que l euro doll et l'or ne sont pas correles je cherche juste a comprendre pourquoi

Bonsoir

La pénurie de physique gagne doucement ...

Ici le site de Kitco qui liste les produits non-disponibles



là un avis éclairé sur le deleveraging en cours (OI en baisse sur les contrats spec) et les angoisses pour la livraison de certains contrats

Bill Fleckenstein :

Turning to the precious-metals market, gold was higher by 4% when stocks were on their lows (though it backed off a bit to close up 3%). I bring this up because for many days now, stocks have been weak and gold has been higher (even with a strong dollar). I think there's real information in what the gold-market action is trying to tell us.

My regular readers are aware of the shortages of physical gold. And I think a lot of folks have found that out for themselves when they've tried to buy some coins. (Read "Going for the gold? Be alert.")

What I haven't talked about lately is that gold lease rates have gone through the roof. That appears to be because central banks are becoming credit-averse and not lending out their gold as they once did. I've also heard rumblings about some large holders of gold futures deciding to take delivery, since they're having trouble buying physical gold in sufficient size.

Gold coming up short of demand?
If that's the case, it could cause a mad scramble at the ComEx, the commodities exchange, because there's not enough gold to meet the open interest. It looks like physical gold, as opposed to paper gold, is rapidly becoming the flavor of the day -- meaning that a huge price move may lie just in front of us.

And, if that thesis is correct, when more folks start understanding it, there might not be enough gold around to satisfy demand at anywhere near current prices -- and their attention will turn to the place where they can find gold, namely the gold miners, whose job it is to "make" more. (With the price of energy dropping as world GDP slows, the profit potential for the gold miners is liable to be the best it has been in many years.) So, I think the stage may be set for a dramatic move in gold stocks.

A+

Citigroup says long-term gold price could double or even triple
Citigroup suggests that inflation and the fabrication outlook favor gold.

Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Monday , 30 Jun 2008

RENO, NV -

Citigroup forecasts that "gold is likely to regain $1,000/oz by end-08 and to work higher through 2009-2010."

In their recent Gold Commodity Update, Citigroup metals analysts John H. Hill and Graham Wark also predicted that "longer term, we believe that gold is capable of doubling or tripling from current levels."

The Citi global metals forecasts have an upward bias, at $906/$950/1000 average in 2008/09/10.

The analysts said "secular and seasonal factors favor gold" during the second half of this year. "We remain positive on gold, based on macro and supply/demand factors. The forces that have propelled gold for 5 years are firmly in place."

During the second quarter of this year, gold has averaged $896/oz, up 34% from the same quarter of 2007 and down 3% from the first quarter of this year. "Following a series of downside fundamental tests gold appears to have found a floor, and quietly climbed back to $917/oz."

"Despite extensive hand-wringing, the ‘floor in the dollar' has inflicted minimal damage," the analysts noted. "We believe the drivers of the gold bull market remain intact, heading into a favorable period."

"We see gold as well-positioned heading into Autumn, when fabrication tends to heighten the market," they added.

Nevertheless, Hill and Wark warned, "It will be important for seasonal/volatility dampened fabrication demand to recover, before gold can move higher." However, they added," Longer term, we would not be surprised to see gold double from current levels as the global policy prescriptions for the credit crunch remain powerfully and uniformly re-flationary."

Meanwhile, Citicorp suggested that slow de-hedging is unlikely to result in a gold market surplus, although they said it remains a key question. "We believe that the combination of wealth creation in China, petrodollars in Russia/Mid-East, and ETF inflows is likely to absorb possible additional ‘supply' of 200-300 TPY," the analysts advised.

In the meantime, "real interest rates are still strongly negative, inherently favoring hard assets and gold," Citigroup noted.

In their analysis Citigroup found that the principal Exchange Traded Funds hold 954 tonnes of gold bullion valued at US$24 billion, down 4% from peaks during the first quarter of this year. Total volume is equivalent to about 130 days of mine supply. The analysts noted that average daily gold ETF trading value was about $900 million, "more than that of Newmont and Barrick combined."

ETF holdings are up 5% or 39 tonnes from trough levels at the end of May amid profit-taking after $1,000, according to Citigroup.

"Gold correlations are evolving," the analysts noted. "Adherent owners of gold as portfolio insurance should be delighted in recent weeks as increasingly negative is being established between gold and the S&P 500. A strong positive correlation with oil has prevailed year-to-date. The negative correlation with dollar remains a fixture."

Citigroup's analysis also revealed that "gold shares have stalled as investors have flocked to physical bullion or FRF-rich bulk/base miners."

"Disappointingly, gold equities remain near levels seen when the gold was in the low $700s," the analysts determined. "On the other hand, cash flow should be strong with gold above $900/oz.

"The move in gold has been perhaps too sharp for the equities," the analysts said. "During a financial crisis, safe haven demand favors the simplicity of bullion."

Citigroup's" buy-rated" gold picks include Barrick, Peter Hambro, Lihir, and Newmont. However, the analysts cautioned, the second quarter is "likely muted due to flat gold amid energy/input escalation."

Bonjour

Ma boite mail explose depuis quelques semaines.
Parmi les messages qui pourraient intéresser la communauté j'ai sélectionné ces deux là :

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reçu à l'instant :
Pour info, je viens de téléphoner à gold4ex, et il me disent qu'ils n'ont plus de pièces or à vendre depuis 15 jours. Juste un peu de Pesos Mexique.

reçu il y a quelques jours :
Pour info, ce matin j'ai une ancienne cliente ( j'ai travaillé 10 ans en bourse) qui me téléphone pour acheter de l'or. Je téléphone chez Eurogold ( mon broker habituel à Bxl ), réponse plus aucune pièce que des lingots et des frappes belges quatre 9 mais plus de lingots nternationals. Je téléphone chez gold4ex, j'ai plus rien sauf un peu de peso en pièces et des lingots. Ils attendent les nouvelles frappes ....

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A+

Bonjour Roque
J'ai moi meme tel à gold4ex vendredi dernier, pas de nap, quelques 50 pesos, du suisse et petit lingot
J'ai demandé pour 50KE, il m'a dit après inventaire, oui ca devrait aller
Moins de 100KE en stock, que dalle quoi.

S'il n'y a plus d'or physique, faudrait-il se rabattre sur l'or papier ?

Fiz

Amha, non
Du tangible only
Beaucoup trop d'or papier en circulation, risque de spoliation en plus.

bonsoir Roque

une question peu être bête mais j'aimerai avoir ton avis:
pour que les prix monte sur ce produit il faut que les vendeurs puisse avoir encore quelque chose à vendre et si il n'y a plus du tout d'or physique a vendre le prix peut il encore monter?????
bien-sur il y aura peu être des fous qui vont acheter à n'importe quel prix.
merci de ta lumière sur le sujet.

Bonsoir

cdswing : "pour que les prix monte sur ce produit il faut que les vendeurs puisse avoir encore quelque chose à vendre et si il n'y a plus du tout d'or physique a vendre le prix peut il encore monter? " il n'y a pas de question bête mais seulement des réponses idiotes !
Pour l'or physique ce sera comme pour tout actif financier. Plus la demande est forte plus le prix monte. La demande est alors satisfaite par les nouveaux "offreurs" considérant maintenant qu'ils ont une + value à empocher. Voir sur ebay ... une vraie place de marché !

FIZ: "S'il n'y a plus d'or physique, faudrait-il se rabattre sur l'or papier ?" je suis de l'avis de zepelin.

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J'ai écrit dans un commentaire hebdo (je crois que c'est dans "In Gold we trust") que l'argent deviendrait une coqueluche lorsque l'or physique deviendra plus rare.
Non seulement vous avez vu plus haut que même chez Kitco il n'y a plus de Silver Eagle (SUPERBE Pièce) mais jetez un oeil à ce qui commence à se passer sur Ebay.
Exemple :


Ces pièces s'achètent normalement entre 10€ et 14€ (1oz d'argent = 7.69€ ce soir).

A+

PS: au passage notez que la 5€ en argent est déjà à 5.5€ + frais de port.
J'en ai deux à vendre si ça intéresse quelqu'un ! (sérieux)

Bonsoir

Je suis resté sans voix en découvrant cet article sur Bloomberg.
Trichet et toute la clique qui se pose des questions et l'on reparle de Bretton woods et du rôle que l'or y tenait...

... inimaginable de lire des choses pareilles il y a seulement 6 mois !

En revanche ça fait quelques années que j'attends ce moment ...

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Trichet Urges Return to `Discipline' of Bretton Woods (Update1)

By John Fraher and Gabi Thesing
Enlarge Image/Details

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said officials reshaping the world's financial system should try to return to the ``discipline'' that governed markets in the decades after World War II.

``Perhaps what we need is to go back to the first Bretton Woods, to go back to discipline,'' Trichet said after giving a speech at the Economic Club of New York yesterday. ``It's absolutely clear that financial markets need discipline: macroeconomic discipline, monetary discipline, market discipline.''

Some European policy makers are pushing to tighten oversight of markets after the past year's credit squeeze culminated last week in the biggest stock sell-off since 1933. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has suggested the most sweeping rethink of global financial architecture since U.S. and European officials met in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, in 1944. The rules they drew up there governed much of the world economy for the following 30 years.

``Creating stability by adapting frameworks that have worked historically can improve credibility and hence the effectiveness of policy stabilization measures,'' said Lena Komileva, an economist at Tullett Prebon Plc in London. ``This idea may gain traction with policy makers.''

Fixed Currencies

At Bretton Woods, nations agreed to fix exchange rates, establish the International Monetary Fund and start the process of rebuilding Europe's economy in the aftermath of World War II by encouraging coordinated economic policies. Brown said national regulators must coordinate their work and banks should be pushed to disclose more trading positions.

``If we don't have discipline, then we are putting into question the functioning of the market economies and the functioning of our financial markets,'' Trichet said.

Asked whether the escalation of the financial crisis exposed shortcomings in the global monetary system, Trichet said central bankers have ``been up to their responsibilities in these exceptional circumstances.''

Trichet and U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke are struggling to restore order to credit markets after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and $638 billion in writedowns make banks reluctant to lend. The ECB and the Fed last week cut interest rates in tandem and this week agreed to flood the financial system with dollars.

Trichet suggested that slowing growth in the 15-nation euro region may curb inflation, paving the way for more rate cuts after the ECB reduced its benchmark by 50 basis points to 3.75 percent.

`Downside Risks'

``There has been a materialization of the downside risks to growth and we have to take that into consideration in all respects, and particularly as regards the influence that it has on the upside risks for price stability,'' Trichet said.

He indicated that recent market turmoil was partly a consequence of the deregulation that occurred after Bretton Woods' demise. That was triggered in 1971, when inflation forced the U.S. to abandon the dollar's peg to gold, an anchor of the system, heralding the era of floating exchange rates.

``The explosion of the first Bretton Woods in a way could be interpreted as a rejection of discipline,'' said Trichet.

Brown, who has pushed for a decade to strengthen the hand of international authorities overseeing the financial system, said Oct. 13 in London that ``we must devise new rules for a world of global capital flows'' just as the founders of Bretton Woods ``devised rules for a world of limited capital flows.''

``We now have global financial markets but what we do not have is anything other than national and regional regulation and supervision,'' Brown told reporters today before a European Union summit in Brussels.

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A+

L'once d'or qui valait 35 dollars américains en 1971 cotait 1 000 dollars en 2008. Le dollar avait alors perdu 97% de sa valeur en or.

Les USA portent une lourde responsabilité de l'inondation du marché en dollar... Il est aussi très périlleux de contrarier la première puissance économique et militaire mondiale...

Citation de : cdswing (au 15-10-2008 18:34:55)

bonsoir Roque

une question peu être bête mais j'aimerai avoir ton avis:
pour que les prix monte sur ce produit il faut que les vendeurs puisse avoir encore quelque chose à vendre et si il n'y a plus du tout d'or physique a vendre le prix peut il encore monter?????
bien-sur il y aura peu être des fous qui vont acheter à n'importe quel prix.
merci de ta lumière sur le sujet.

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Bonsoir,
j'ai une question analogue sur un horizon très pessimiste:

année 2010:
Beaucoup de gens ont acheté et possèdent de l'or physique. Les temps sont très durs,les impôts les écrasent,le chômage est très haut, l'euro n'existe plus du à de grosses divergences entre pays... Nos braves gens vont donc revendre un peu de leur bien, malheureusement presque plus personne n'a d'argent, même les banques rechignent à acheter ce bien précieux soit parce que le métal coute trop cher, car pas d'acheteur en face, soit par interdiction de possession d'or.

Dans ce scénario catastrophe, N'y a-il pas un risque que le prix actuel est très sur-évalué et que nous nous retrouverons finalement avec quelque chose qui ne se vend plus ou alors à des prix très bas?

Merci de vos éclaircissement

Bonjour Roque
Vraiment des charlots tous ces gens, ils viennent de vendre en plus un peu plus de 15 tonnes, sur les 3 dernières semaines.
De plus pour en arriver là, c'est que leur système est à l'agonnie.
merci pour l'info, elle est de taille!
j'oubliais, il pourrait relire la constitution US,ça l'aiderait à liquider tout ses dollars illégaux.