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| Sujet : ARGUMENTS DES BEARS III | |
Bipbip75: Perso je vois pas trop le pbl sur la dette espagnole, en tout cas par rapport aux autres pays de l'UE, certes le déficit est important, car la crise en très forte là bas (20 % de chômage quasi) mais si l'on raisonne uniquement en dette/GDP, ce sont plutôt de bons élèves. Y a pas mal d'enfume manifestement dans tout ça...
Pour confirmer ta juste remarque, l'enfumage fait partie du décor, 'Europe Lehman-fied' dans le FT, ahma il serait temps de mettre en place les 'clearing houses' pour CDS
http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displaystory...
NY Times: La vérité sur le déficit
When the White House released its new budget last week, including more spending to create desperately needed jobs, Republican leaders in Congress denounced President Obama for driving up the deficit and demanded that the Democrats halt their “reckless” ways.The deficit numbers — a projected $1.3 trillion in fiscal 2011 alone — are breathtaking. What is even more breathtaking is the Republicans’ cynical refusal to acknowledge that the country would never have gotten into so deep a hole if President George W. Bush and the Republican-led Congress had not spent years slashing taxes — mainly on the wealthy — and spending with far too little restraint. Unfortunately, the problem does not stop there."
"But the cold economic truth is this: At a time of high unemployment and fragile growth, the last thing the government should do is to slash spending. That will only drive the economy into deeper trouble."
La froide vérité économique est la suivante: dans une période de haut chomage et de croissance fragile, la dernière chose que le gouvernement doit faire est couper les
dépenses.Ceci ne peut qu'entrainer l'économie dans une situation encore pire.
" HOW DID WE GET HERE? When President Bush took office in 2001, the federal budget had been in the black for three years, and continued surpluses were projected for a decade to come. By the time Mr. Bush left office in early 2009, the government had run big deficits for seven straight years, and the economy was on the brink of another Great Depression. On Jan. 7, 2009 — two weeks before Mr. Obama was inaugurated — the Congressional Budget Office issued new budget estimates showing a fiscal year 2009 deficit of well over $1 trillion."
'Comment nous en sommes arrivés là ?Quand le président Bush est entré en fonction en 2001,le budget était en excédent depuis trois ans et des excédents' faisaient partie des projections. Quand le président sortant a quitté le pouvoir,
le gouvernement avait eu recours au déficit pendant 7 ans et l'économie était au bord du trou.Le 7 Janvier 2009,deux semaines avant la prise de fonctions du nouveau président, le CBO publiait de nouvelles estimations budgétaires révèlant un déficit pour l'année fiscale dépassant le trillion pour la décade à venir.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/07/opinion/07sun1.h...
HBO's 2011 Budget: How it is spent
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/02/01/us/b...
édité le : 07-02-2010 13:50:09
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Pour comprendre pourquoi cest grece, espagne, portugal,.... frnce avant Us,UK ou Allemagne il ne faut pas regarder que dette brute il faut ajouter les dettes implicites = finanaccement retraites, du chomage,...
Passer de 10 a 20 % de chomeur en espagne cest comme ajouter 2 millions de fonctionnaires en france. cest letat qui paye leur salaire pendant 1 ou 2 ans.
Pour les rretraites il y a des donnees la (je les ai pas recalcule) :
http://workforall.net/US_Europe_Public_Debt_loose_...
Ajouter a cela l'effet dette nette (les aactifs financiers quon les etat en face de leurs dette par exemple l'or de la banque de france) et il est visible que les espagnols et les grec sont plus a poil que les autres.
L'Europe risque une autre dépression globale by Simon Johnson
"The entirely pointless G7 meeting this weekend only served to underline the fact that Europe is again entering a serious economic crisis.At the end of the meeting yesterday, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner told reporters, “I just want to underscore they made it clear to us, they the European authorities, that they will manage this [the Greek debt crisis] with great care.”
But the Europeans are not being careful – and it’s not just about Greece any more. Worries about government debt and associated public sector liabilities (e.g., because banking systems are in deep trouble) have spread through the eurozone to Spain and Portugal. Ireland and Italy are next up for hostile reconsideration by the markets, and the UK may not be far behind. What are the stronger European countries, specifically Germany and France, doing to contain the self-fulfilling fear that weaker eurozone countries may not be able to pay their debt – this panic that pushes up interest rates and makes it harder for beleaguered governments to actually pay?
The Europeans with deep-pockets are doing nothing – except insist that all countries under pressure cut their budgets quickly and in ways that are probably politically infeasible. This kind of precipitate fiscal austerity contributed directly to the onset of the Great Depression in the 1930s...The financial markets know all this and last week sharpened their swords. As we move into this week, expect more selling pressure across a wide range of European assets. As this pressure mounts, we’ll see cracks appear also in the private sector. Significant banks and large hedge funds have been selling insurance against default by European sovereigns. As countries lose creditworthiness – and, under sufficient pressure, very few government credit ratings will hold up – these financial institutions will need to come up with cash to post increasing amounts of collateral against their derivative obligations (yes, the same credit default swaps that triggered the collapse last time).
Remember that none of the opaqueness of the credit default swap market has been addressed since the crisis of September 2008. And generalized counter-party risk – the fear that your insurer will fail and this will bring down all connected banks – raises its ugly head again.
In such a situation, investors scramble for the safest assets available – “cash”, which actually (and ironically, given our budget woes) means short-term US government securities. It’s not that the US is in good shape or even has anything approaching a credible medium-term fiscal framework, it’s just that everyone else is in much worse shape.
Another Lehman/AIG-type situation lurks somewhere on the European continent, and again our purported G7 (or even G20) leaders are slow to see the risk. And this time, given that they already used almost all their fiscal bullets, it will be considerably more difficult for governments to respond effectively when they do wake up."
http://baselinescenario.com/2010/02/07/europe-risk...
Chute de l'Euro, menace sur la reprise américaine par Simon Johnson
”Intensified fears over government debt in the eurozone are pushing the euro weaker against the dollar. The G7 achieved nothing over the weekend, the IMF is stuck on the sidelines, and the Europeans are sitting on their hands at least until a summit on Thursday.There is a lot of trading time between now and then – and most of it is likely to be spent weakening the euro further.The UK also faces serious pressure, and there is no telling where this goes next around the world – or how it gets there.
There may be direct effects on the US, as our banking system remains undercapitalized. Or the effect may be through making it harder to export – one of the few bright spots for the American economy over the past 12 months has been trade. But this is unlikely to hold up as a driver of growth if the euro depreciation continues...”
http://baselinescenario.com/2010/02/07/euro-fallin...
édité le : 08-02-2010 10:17:27
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La presse anglo-saxonne continue: European Central Bank in a Squeeze
"Whether he likes it or not, Jean-Claude Trichet is not just the president of the European Central Bank. Mr. Trichet, 67, is also the de facto president of Europe, at least for the 16 nations that rely on the euro as their common currency.But as investor alarm about Greek, Spanish and Portuguese indebtedness increases, the crisis has highlighted the fundamental weakness of the European monetary union. With no strong political arm to ensure that members observe debt limits set by treaty, the responsibility falls to Mr. Trichet to try to resolve the crisis.In the current situation, said Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, only the bank’s president “has the authority and the expertise” to manage the situation..."
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/08/business/global/...
One crisis,two paths:
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2010/02/08/busin...
édité le : 08-02-2010 15:25:06
Tensions dans la zone euro
Le Financial Times Allemagne:
"Die Skepsis der Investoren gegenüber dem Euro ist so groß wie noch nie seit Einführung der Gemeinschaftswährung. Laut der US-Terminbörsenaufsicht Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) belaufen sich die Netto-Verkaufspositionen auf 43.700 Kontrakte. In der Woche zuvor waren es noch 39.500 gewesen."
Le scepticisme des investisseurs face à l'euro est le plus grand jamais enregistré depuis l'introduction de l'euro. Selon la CFTC US ( ndr, qui cloture ses semaines le mardi ) ont été enregistrés 43.700 contrats 'shorts euro', contre 39.500 la semaine dernière, déjà le montant record depuis l'introduction de la monnaie.
http://www.ftd.de/finanzen/maerkte/anleihen-devisen/:spannungen-in-der-waehrungsunion-kapitalmarkt-schreibt-euro-ab/50071269.html
La presse anglo-saxonne et l'euro: Pourquoi pas leur refaire
Weimar ?
Can Europe print money to get out of its fiscal hole?
´Warren Mosler has an interesting and provocative remedy for Europe’s current fiscal woes: the European Central Bank should simply print 1 trillion euros, and hand it out, on a pro-rated basis, to all the Eurozone states. This is a per-capita payment: it would be based on population, not on GDP, with the highest-population countries getting the most money..´
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/02/08/c...
Citation de : piet (au 07-02-2010 13:48:34)
NY Times: La vérité sur le déficit
When the White House released its new budget last week, including more spending to create desperately needed jobs, Republican leaders in Congress denounced President Obama for driving up the deficit and demanded that the Democrats halt their “reckless” ways.The deficit numbers — a projected $1.3 trillion in fiscal 2011 alone — are breathtaking. What is even more breathtaking is the Republicans’ cynical refusal to acknowledge that the country would never have gotten into so deep a hole if President George W. Bush and the Republican-led Congress had not spent years slashing taxes — mainly on the wealthy — and spending with far too little restraint. Unfortunately, the problem does not stop there."
"But the cold economic truth is this: At a time of high unemployment and fragile growth, the last thing the government should do is to slash spending. That will only drive the economy into deeper trouble."
La froide vérité économique est la suivante: dans une période de haut chomage et de croissance fragile, la dernière chose que le gouvernement doit faire est couper les
dépenses.Ceci ne peut qu'entrainer l'économie dans une situation encore pire.
"HOW DID WE GET HERE? When President Bush took office in 2001, the federal budget had been in the black for three years, and continued surpluses were projected for a decade to come. By the time Mr. Bush left office in early 2009, the government had run big deficits for seven straight years, and the economy was on the brink of another Great Depression. On Jan. 7, 2009 — two weeks before Mr. Obama was inaugurated — the Congressional Budget Office issued new budget estimates showing a fiscal year 2009 deficit of well over $1 trillion."
'Comment nous en sommes arrivés là ?Quand le président Bush est entré en fonction en 2001,le budget était en excédent depuis trois ans et des excédents' faisaient partie des projections. Quand le président sortant a quitté le pouvoir,
le gouvernement avait eu recours au déficit pendant 7 ans et l'économie était au bord du trou.Le 7 Janvier 2009,deux semaines avant la prise de fonctions du nouveau président, le CBO publiait de nouvelles estimations budgétaires révèlant un déficit pour l'année fiscale dépassant le trillion pour la décade à venir.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/07/opinion/07sun1.h...
HBO's 2011 Budget: How it is spent
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/02/01/us/b...
facile par une idéologie de baisse des impôts
Il faut coincer la bulle
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When Germany bails out Greece euro
"Faisal Islam does a great job explaining the problems facing Greece, and why Germany is likely to come up with some kind of bailout:
'This so-called ‘ouzo crisis’ has emerged from a witches’ brew of concern about 1 Greece’s shaky political economy, including dodgy statistics and historic default record, 2 the short term nature of Greece’s debts and 3 the fact that a large proportion of its creditors are easily-spooked foreign investors..So all along we have been waiting for the point at which the possible systemic damage, the contagion to the other countries would be so acute, that Germany and France would step in. We are here now.'
Will Greece be giving up fiscal independence in return for bailout funds or German guarantees? I’m sure it’ll agree to stringent conditions, while claiming that it would have kept to such a plan in any case. The question is what happens when — inevitably — it ends up breaking its fiscal promises, or trying to play silly games to get around them. What will Germany be able to do, in that case, to snap Greece back into line? And do the Germans really want to play the role of Europe’s fiscal disciplinarian in any event? It probably doesn’t matter: Greece is the Bear Stearns of Europe, seemingly too big to be allowed to falter or default, and therefore it must be bailed out somehow. Of course this sets an important precedent for when Spain and/or Italy find themselves in a similar situation — and it’s likely to make countries like Latvia feel a bit miffed, seeing how much fiscal pain they’ve inflicted on themselves with no bailout to show for it at all. The hazard here is that countries, seeing the Greek precedent, refuse to take tough fiscal steps unless the path is sweetened by Germany and France. This isn’t the end of the euro crisis: it’s only the beginning."
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/02/09/w...
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Europe: Couches d'ouzo...
Van Rompuy appelle les 27 à se resaissir
« Toutes les économies européennes font face à des défis très importants », a-t-il souligné dans une lettre d’invitation aux 27 chefs d’États et de gouvernement en vue de leur réunion de jeudi à Bruxelles.
« Notre taux de croissance structurel n’est pas assez élevé pour créer des emplois et permettre de maintenir notre modèle social. Nous devons agir ensemble pour faire face à ces défis afin d’aider à préserver le mode de vie européen et rivaliser avec les autres économies de premier plan dans le monde », écrit-il.
EU President's secret bid for economic power
The new President of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy, is using the financial crisis sweeping the eurozone to launch an audacious grab for power over national budgets, leaked documents reveal...The summit will be held away from the usual redoubts of the Euro bureaucracy, in Brussels' Solvay library. "Van Rompuy wanted to create a far more intimate atmosphere without an army of advisers," a source said. "There are a lot of tensions between member states right now, which he is why he decided to get them to talk in an open, friendly setting, starting with aperitifs. The idea is to have a proper brainstorming session and hear everyone's thoughts."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/eu-...
Germany backs Greek bail-out Quelle surprise !
Germany is preparing to drop its vehement opposition to a rescue package for Greece, as EU plans creation of an "economic government"..."Herman Van Rompuy, the EU's new president, has submitted a text calling for the creation of an "economic government" that shifts responsibility for economic planning from national authorities to the "EU level". In a parallel move, Commission chief Jose Barroso said Brussels has treaty powers allowing it to take the reins of economic management..."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambrose...
Germany looks to build Greek 'firewall'
.."Current discussions concern reducing contagion rather than helping Greece, however. “We’re thinking about what we should do if the crisis spills from Greece into other euro countries. So it’s more about finding firewalls, containing the problem, than principally about helping the Greeks,” said one official. He added there were “no concrete plans” as yet."
http://blogs.ft.com/money supply/2010/02/10/germany-looks-to-build-greek-firewall/
édité le : 10-02-2010 13:02:17
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Main Points by Simon Johnson 09.02
1)In recent months, the US economy entered a recovery phase following the severe credit crisis-induced recession of 2008-09. While slower than it should have been based on previous experience, growth has surprised on the upside in the past quarter. This will boost headline year-on-year growth above the current consensus for 2010. We estimate the global economy will grow over 4 percent, as measured by the IMF’s year-on-year headline number (their latest published forecast is for 3.9 percent), with US growth in the 3-4 percent range – calculated on the same basis.
2)But thinking in terms of these headline numbers masks a much more worrying dynamic.A major sovereign debt crisis is gathering steam in Europe, focused for now on the weaker countries in the eurozone, but with the potential to spillover also to the United Kingdom. These further financial market disruptions will not only slow the European economies – we estimate growth in the euro area will fall to around 0.5 percent Q4 on Q4 (the IMF puts this at 1.1 percent, but the January World Economic Outlook update was prepared before the Greek crisis broke in earnest) – it will also cause the euro to weaken and lower growth around the world.
3)There are some European efforts underway to limit debt crisis to Greece and to prevent the further spread of damage. But these efforts are too little and too late..
From Greece to the US: The Globalized Financial Transmission Mechanism
"..As the international situation deteriorates – or even if it remains at this level of volatility – undercapitalized banks will be reluctant to lend and credit conditions will tighten around the US.If the European situation spins seriously out of control, as it may well do in coming weeks, the likelihood of a double-dip recession (or significant slowdown in the second half of 2010) increases dramatically."
Longer Run Baseline Scenario
"..The most worrisome part is that we are nearing the end of our fiscal and monetary ability to bail out the system. In 2008-09 we were lucky that major countries had the fiscal space available to engage in stimulus and that monetary policy could use quantitative easing effectively. In the future, there are no guarantees that the size of the available policy response will match the magnitude of the shock to the credit system...We are steadily becoming more vulnerable to economic disaster on an epic scale."
http://baselinescenario.com/2010/02/09/revised-bas...
édité le : 10-02-2010 15:05:22
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| Sujet : ARGUMENTS DES BEARS III | |
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