Analyse Technique | Analyse dynamique | sujet : ARGUMENTS DES BEARS

hello, lu cette info sur forum bourso :

NEW YORK, 22 juillet (Reuters) - Le trader sur l'énergie SemGroup s'est placé mardi soir sous le régime américain des faillites après une perte de plus de 3,2 milliards enregistrée principalement sur le marché américain Nymex des futures sur les cours pétroliers, après les récents records des cours de l'or noir.

Pour faire face à ses engagements, le groupe américain envisage de vendre des actifs notamment dans le stockage et le transport de pétrole et de gaz, qui vaudraient au total plus de 6 milliards de dollars./SD

Dolly hurricane

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

Merrill Cuts 2009 U.S. GDP Forecast: Chart of the Day

July 22 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co. economists clipped their forecasts for U.S. growth, making revisions that they described as ``adjusting to the new reality.''

``Just like consumers, who are insulating their windows and making fewer trips to the malls, we are adjusting our economic forecasts to the new high-oil-price reality, not to mention the latest round of trauma in the mortgage markets,'' New York-based economists Sheryl King and Drew Matus wrote in a report.

The chart of the day shows the quarterly change in U.S. gross domestic product in green, with the annualized figure in red. Merrill now expects the economy to contract by 0.5 percent in 2009, after previously forecasting growth of 0.5 percent.

``We expect GDP to plummet 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter, and see a similar decline in the first quarter'' of 2009, wrote King and Matus. ``With the consumer likely to remain under duress into 2009 and inflation fears likely to abate, we continue to expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates early next year.''

Figures scheduled for release on July 31 are expected to show that the U.S. economy grew at an annualized 1.8 percent in the second quarter, according to the average forecast of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, up from 1 percent in the first three months of the year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&si...

Darling Says Global Credit Crunch `More Profound' Than Expected

July 22 (Bloomberg) -- Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling said fallout from a global credit crunch is proving worse than previously expected, a sign that U.K. policy makers are bracing for slower growth.

``The effect of what has happened is going to be far more profound than people predicted even at the turn of this year,'' Darling said in an interview with Bloomberg Television, which will air excerpts today. ``It is quite clear that if you look during the course of this year, conditions have become more difficult across the world.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&si...

Un de plus:

WaMu Posts Big Loss But Says Capital Is Sufficient

During the quarter, WaMu also announced plans to exit the wholesale lending business and close all remaining standalone home loan centers. WaMu said it will instead focus its mortgage-originating efforts in its retail bank branches and Web site, and by expanding its call center operations.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/25802058

En résumé, c'est pas fini.


Home Prices Keep Falling, Prolonging Financial Crisis

The financial crisis won't be over until U.S. house prices stop falling, many experts believe, which in short means it won't be over anytime soon.



Despite a long fall that has brought down several major financial institutions and taken the economy as a whole to the brink of recession, housing in the United States is still too expensive relative to incomes, rent and the availability of mortgage money with which to buy it.

And that's before you factor in rising unemployment or oil price inflation that is crimping budgets and making long commutes, and the houses built at the end of those commutes, no longer affordable.

The implications are pretty dire; rising levels of writedowns at banks, more failures of financial firms and lousy economic growth, if any, until six months or so after a base is found.

It looks to us that at least one half of the peak-to-trough price decline has already occurred and that we should see an outright bottom either late next year or in the first part of 2010," Wachovia economists Mark Vitner and Adam York wrote in a note to clients. "A reasonable first assumption is that a bigger boom will produce a bigger bust."

Looking at housing in relation to income, they found that prices have moved closer to historic norms, but not as far as could be expected given the extent of the boom.

If prices were to moderate back to where they were relative to income in the mid and late 1990s, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20 City index would have to decline 35.1 percent in total compared with its 17.5 percent fall thus far.

Another way to look at housing is how much it costs to buy versus rent.

Vitner and York compared prices with owners' equivalent rent, an exhaustive measure of rental costs computed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Rents and sales prices had a very stable historical relationship between the early 1980s and about 1997, at which point purchase prices surged while rental ones more or less kept pace with inflation.

Using the 20 City index, their analysis is that to get back in line with their historic relationship to rental costs prices must fall even further, by nearly 40 percent peak-to-trough.

National Association of Realtors median home price data produces falls that were smaller in total. On an income measure NAR prices could fall 17.2 percent in total, as compared with their 11.2 percent fall thus far.

Regardless of which index you believe, the important measure is that we are only 50-60 percent of the way down.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/25802673

National City looking to sell unit: report

NEW YORK (Reuters) - National City Corp <NCC.N> is trying to sell its money-management unit, according to the Wall Street Journal's online edition.

National City is working with Morgan Stanley to shop Allegiant Funds, which manages about $30 billion.

Cleveland-based National City has large operations in Ohio, Michigan and Florida, all hard-hit by the nation's housing problems. The bank has lost money in three straight quarters due to its exposure to mortgage and home equity lending.

In April, the regional bank raised $7 billion of capital from private equity firm Corsair Capital and other investors and in June, it entered into agreements with federal regulators concerning its asset quality and its ability to manage capital, risk and liquidity.

National City's shares have fallen about 85 percent from the year's high of $32.2.

PSA Peugeot Citroën: bénéfice net en hausse de 49% au 1er semestre

Le constructeur automobile français PSA Peugeot Citroën a enregistré un bénéfice net en hausse de 49% au premier semestre 2008, à 733 millions d'euros, a-t-il annoncé mercredi dans un communiqué.

Gestion : les gérants se défient du marché actions

(Newsmanagers.com) - Redoutant une crise financière durable, les investisseurs se reportent massivement sur les liquidités.

D'après la dernière enquête de Merrill Lynch réalisée auprès de 191 gérants dans le monde, 58% "sous-pondèrent" désormais les actions, alors qu'ils n'étaient que 35 % en mai.

En attendant des jours meilleurs, les professionnels se replient sur les liquidités.

En net, 53 % "surpondèrent" le cash - un record - contre 42 % en juin et 31 % en mai.

La proportion de liquidités dans les portefeuilles (en moyenne 4,8 %) a nettement augmenté sur les deux derniers mois.

Les gérants sont notamment devenus extrêmement méfiants sur les résultats des entreprises US et craignent de nouvelles révisions à la baisse. 30 % jugent le consensus sur les bénéfices "beaucoup trop élevé" et 55 % "assez élevé". Il sont 40 % à anticiper une inflation sous-jacente (hors alimentation et énergie) en baisse dans les douze mois, au niveau mondial, alors qu'ils n'étaient que 26 % en juin.

http://www.boursorama.com/opcvm/detail-actualite-o...

Report: Deal Reached on Housing Legislation

by CalculatedRisk

Here is an interesting detail:

The Treasury would be barred from providing aid that would cause a breach in the federal debt ceiling under the agreement, a constraint aimed at limiting any taxpayer losses. The debt limit would be raised to $10.6 trillion from the current $9.815 trillion.

My guess of $10 trillion in U.S. debt by the end of Bush's 2nd term is looking better. That is one forecast I wish I had been wrong about.

Les dépenses de consommation des ménages en produits manufacturés, exprimées à prix constants et corrigées des effets de jours ouvrables et des variations saisonnières, ont reculé de 0,4% au mois de juin après une hausse de 1,7% le mois précédent, annonce mercredi l'Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques

Costco (US supermarché) PW
profit well below estimate

Une maison dans le Michigan vendue 110.000 $ en 200( ne trouve pas preneur aujourd hui à 5000 (oui cinq mille dollars)

et à qui appartient la maison ??? Fannie Mae
Fannie et Freddie ont 6.9M$ de maisons saisies au 31 mars,soit 43,167 maisons en hausse de 64%

la hausse du dollar imputable aux commentaires de Paulson et de la FED selon Bloomberg..seul souci,Morgan Stanley voit la FED baisser les taux à la fin de l année

commandes de camion chez Volvo -28%

10y US 4.13 %

CDS sur la dette US en hausse de 1 point à 20 (soit 20.000 euros pour 10m d euros)

- 67% sur les mortgage approvals en UK....