Fondamentales (Analyses et Réflexions) | Conjoncture | sujet : ARGUMENTS DES BEARS

c'est sur que si Google ferme son giga gap up ; le naze devrait pas aimer la plaisanterie !!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=goog

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners 3 to 2 on volume of 1.09 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers four to three on volume of 1.78 billion shares.

pas mal pour les bears ca aussi .....

la banque centrale du Chili remonte les taux de 50 pts !!

Les chiliens savent faire des trucs que Tcj ne sait meme pas imaginer....

6.75 contre 6.25...inflation a 5...des taux positifs comme dans tous les pays normaux .....

Gazprom prévoit un baril de pétrole à 250 dollars

[ 10/06/08 - 14H47 - actualisé à 15:56:00 ]


Alexeï Miller, le président du géant russe du gaz, estime qu'il existe une "influence sérieuse des opérations de spéculateurs" sur les marchés du brut mais que cette influence n'est pas décisive.

Alexeï Miller - AFP/Kenzo Tribouillard

Le patron du géant gazier russe Gazprom, Alexeï Miller, a affirmé mardi à Deauville (Calvados), que le prix du baril de pétrole allait atteindre 250 dollars, sans préciser à quelle échéance. "Aujourd'hui, nous sommes les témoins d'une augmentation des prix critique pour les hydrocarbures. Maintenant, le prix va atteindre un niveau jamais atteint. La perspective sera de 250 dollars par baril de pétrole", a déclaré M. Miller, lors d'une conférence de presse, en marge d'une réunion d'hommes d'affaires de l'European Business Congress. "La compétition pour (cette) ressource sera plus forte", a-t-il ajouté.

Le président de Gazprom a estimé que qu'il y avait une "influence sérieuse des opérations de spéculateurs" sur les marchés du pétrole mais que "cette influence n'était pas décisive". M. Miller a indiqué que son groupe vendait son gaz à l'Europe actuellement à 410 dollars les 1.000 mètres cubes, et non à 400 dollars comme anticipé précédemment. En mars, M. Miller avait estimé que le gaz russe pourrait atteindra 400 dollars en 2008.

Gazprom prévoit par ailleurs de devenir la première société au monde d'ici sept à huit ans, et pas seulement dans le secteur énergétique. A cette échéance, "la capitalisation (boursière de Gazprom ndlr) atteindra le seuil de 1.000 milliards de dollars et nous serons la plus grande société, pas seulement énergétique, dans le monde", a ajouté M. Miller. La capitalisation boursière actuelle de Gazprom est de 343 milliards de dollars. M. Miller a estimé que Gazprom était déjà la première société énergétique "en terme de ressources" d'hydrocarbures.

Le président de Gazprom a également indiqué que le marché intérieur russe allait devenir "prioritaire" pour Gazprom par rapport au marché des exportations. Gazprom va devenir "la société numéro un" et sa stratégie "sera basée sur le marché intérieur de la Russie. C'est le marché prioritaire", a déclaré M. Miller. Dans les trois à quatre prochaines années, "la rentabilité du marché intérieur sera égale à celle (des) exportations" de Gazprom, a-t--il précisé. En Russie, Gazprom entend poursuivre son "programme de regazéification de toutes les régions", et développer la production d'électricité.

Interrogé pour savoir si Gazprom allait faire des acquisitions en Russie, M. Miller a rappelé que son groupe avait "acquis beaucoup d'actifs pétroliers en Russie" et que maintenant il "les consolidait", avec un objectif de produire "jusqu'à 100 millions de tonnes de pétrole par an" à partir de 2020.

Qui veut shorter l'Oil ? à mon avis la déclaration de l'Opep c'est pur blabla... ce qui compte ce sont les stocks dispo après raffinage... à mon humble avis, sans aller jusqu'au 250 dollars (tentative de Gazprom de banaliser les niveaux de prix actuels?), je reste persuadé que le niveau de l'Oil se maintiendra sur des niveaux élevés afin de rentabiliser l'exploitation des nappes difficiles d'accès. Le reflux s'amorcera lorsque de nouvelles énergies viendront en substitution de l'Oil de façon décisive, notamment dans l'automobile. Wait & See, mais pour les semaines à venir, les 150 sont clairement en ligne de mire.

Fed Is Hoping to Talk Down Inflation, Not Boost Rates

The U.S. Federal Reserve is hoping tough talk on inflation will do the job of moderating recent price increases, giving it room to avoid raising interest rates as the economy remains fragile.

The problem is that investors may try to determine whether the central bank is bluffing.

A failure to deliver on its implicit promise of tighter monetary policy could lead to increased financial market volatility and derail the tentative calm that aggressive Fed action has managed to inspire.

Futures markets have already begun pricing in chances of an interest rate hike as early as September, a prospect that many analysts think is far-fetched given the still-shaky state of housing and finance.

"They are threatening at the moment but I don't think they'll really pull the trigger," said Chris Rupkey, senior financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, who was speaking on the sidelines of a Fed conference on inflation on Cape Cod.

The about-face in Fed speak has come abruptly. Just a month ago, most officials seemed keenly focused on the risk that economic growth would slow even further, buried under the weight of falling home values and rising energy costs.

But in a series of recent speeches, Fed chief Ben Bernanke appears to have tilted the prevailing discourse toward the central bank's more hawkish camp.

On Monday,Bernanke said the Fed would work to restrain consumer expectations of higher prices. He also played down a May surge in the unemployment rate from 5 percent to 5.5 percent, the biggest jump in 22 years, saying the risks of a substantial downturn in the U.S. economy had receded.

"The Federal Open Market Committee will strongly resist an erosion of longer-term inflation expectations, as an unanchoring of those expectations would be destabilizing for growth as well as for inflation," Bernanke said.

The trouble, according to many investors, is that the Fed's hands are tied.

"Is there enough life left in the patient in the wake of the housing and credit bust and the oil shock that would allow the Fed to heap further stress on the host?" asks William O'Donnell, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at UBS Securities in Stamford Connecticut. "We think not and we think that words will have to suffice.

The weakness of the dollar is also a central issue for the the Fed and is part of the reason the central bank has stepped up its rhetoric on inflation.

Rock and A Hard Place

The Fed is worried record-high energy costs could lead consumers to expect a swift inflation pace is here to stay, setting in motion a self-feeding wage-push inflation cycle.

Indeed, some data suggest inflation expectations are already on the rise. The Conference Board said its survey of consumers showed inflation expectations hit an all-time high of 7.7 percent last month.

Now that the average price of a gallon of gasoline has hit a record above $4 a gallon, expectations could climb further.

Still, many economists say a wage-price cycle is unlikely to develop, given the weak state of the economy. Over the past year, the rise in average hourly earnings has slowed.

At the same time, the swooning housing market has shown few signs of life. Home prices have fallen 14 percent over the past year by one measure, cutting many homeowners off from the equity they had tapped for spending during the housing boom.

At the same time, financial institutions continue to report large write-downs related to complex investments in the real estate sector. Fears have been running high that Lehman Brothers could face a run on the bank similar to the one that brought Bear Stearns to the brink of bankruptcy in March.

Given these weak spots, many analysts just do not think it feasible for the Fed to act against inflation by boosting rates, particularly in a presidential election year when such an action could generate unwanted political reverberations.

Indeed, Bernanke signaled last week that the central bank would likely remain on the sidelines for some time, describing policy as "well-positioned."

"We still think no Fed tightening for a good while," said Andrew Brenner, senior vice president at MF Global in New York.

Futures markets are seeing it differently, however. By Tuesday, they had priced in a series of rate increases beginning in September that would take benchmark overnight rates up three-quarters of a percentage point by year end.

These conflicting expectations could come to a head later in the year, analysts say, exacerbating market fluctuations that have already been extreme. Oil prices recently posted their largest-ever one-day spike, while 2 percent moves in either direction have become commonplace for the stock market.

Nonetheless, such troubles might be avoided altogether if the Fed's jawboning efforts are successful at reigning in inflation expectations.

They have already proven so in the very near term, with the spread between nominal and inflation-protected bonds narrowing in the wake of Bernanke's comments.

Bonjour les amis

Vous l avez souvent lu ici (je vous saoule avec)...nous y voila

PPI Japon 4.7 % ..au plus haut de 27 ans....(contre 3.9 en avril)
et surtout l excedent commercial diminue de 30 %..ca se complique pour le financement de la dette US
taux au Japon...0.5 %.....Bravo la BOE...que font ils <?? comme Ben et CJT....rien du tout !! des heros ordinaires..

PPI Chine au plus haut de 3 ans a 8.2 % (en Yuan (haussier))

En vrac ....


Retailers May Choose Local Suppliers as Oil Rises, PwC Says

June 11 (Bloomberg) -- Global retailers may cut orders from China and India and source more goods locally in developed markets because of increased energy and transportation costs, PricewaterhouseCoopers said

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si...

China Producer Prices Rise Most in More Than 3 Years

June 11 (Bloomberg) -- China's producer-price gains accelerated to the fastest pace in more than three years in May, underscoring the threat that consumer inflation will rebound.

Factory-gate prices rose 8.2 percent from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said today, after gaining 8.1 percent in April.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si...

Japan's Wholesale Inflation Surges, Squeezing Profits

June 11 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's wholesale prices rose at the fastest pace in 27 years, signaling soaring energy costs may erode corporate profits and bring an end to the economy's longest postwar expansion.

Producer-price inflation accelerated to 4.7 percent in May from 3.9 percent in April, the Bank of Japan said in Tokyo today. The current-account surplus shrank 30 percent in April as record oil costs added to the nation's import bill.

Profits fell 17.5 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the steepest decline since the most recent recession in 2001, a report showed last week. The Cabinet Office this week said growth in the world's second-largest economy has probably peaked, and companies including Nissan Motor Co. and Advantest Corp. expect conditions to worsen.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&si...

Australia June Consumer Sentiment Hits 15-Year Low

Australian consumer sentiment slumped to 15-year lows in June as surging petrol and living costs pressured family finances, a survey showed on Wednesday, suggesting household spending could yet fall further.


The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index dropped 5.6 percent to 84.7 in June, a 30.3 percent dive on the same month last year.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/25085746

United Rentals outlook cut to negative on share buyback plan - Moody's

BANGALORE (Thomson Financial) - Moody's Investors Service said it has cut its rating outlook on United Rentals (North America) Inc. to negative from stable, following the company's plan to repurchase $1.4 billion in common stock and preferred shares. The ratings agency said the negative outlook reflects management's aggressive financial strategy by pursuing debt-financed share repurchases at a time when the company is experiencing a slowdown in the non-residential construction markets, which is the main driver of United Rental's revenues.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/25087649/for/cnbc

Lehman may raise capital from Korea: report

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Lehman Brothers <LEH.N> almost struck a deal with Korean financial institutions as part of raising $6 billion in capital, and may yet arrange one by the end of the year, the Financial Times reported on its website on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

Korean institutions viewed as potential partners for Lehman include Korea Development Bank <KORB.UL>, and a commercial bank such as Kookmin Bank <060000.KS>, the FT reported. Potential passive investors include the Korean Pension Service and Korean Investment Corp, the FT reported.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/25085533/for/cnbc

A noter que l'augmentation de K de Lehman est loin d'être finalisée?

Ca peut servir ....

Gov't changes Fannie, Freddie capital calculation

WASHINGTON - Mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could be required to maintain a larger cash cushion in the future under rules adopted by the companies' federal regulator.

The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, which oversees the government-sponsored companies, said Tuesday it would change how it calculates one of those measurements, known as risk-based capital.

The current methodology overestimates how much Fannie and Freddie would recover on defaulted mortgages and foreclosed properties, the government said. Under the new rules, the calculations would no longer do so.

The change, however, has little immediate impact because Fannie and Freddie exceed the government's binding capital standards.

As of March 31, Fannie's total capital of $47.7 billion exceeded the

http://www.cnbc.com/id/25084310/for/cnbc

Ca donne quoi l Itraxx que nous mettait y a kke temps Chris ? z en ont parle un peu sur cnbc l instant mais pas assez reveillé pour tout comprendre :p

il y a de nouvelles tensions sur le marche de certains CDS...on revient sur des plus bas de cet hiver..mais pas pour toutes les categories....visiblement,certains analystes attendent de nouveaux problemes dans ce domaine....logique vu l immobilier US

Je mettrai une depeche quand elle sera revelatrice..pas de soucis....il y a plein de depeches sur des soucis sur le marche du credit..mais rien de vraiment majeur

Inditex..profits en hausse de 10 %..le plus faible depuis 4 ans
UK...croissance tres tres faible selon un institut prive


Incroyable qu aucune grande banque centrale ne releve les taux....ca prouve l etendue des problemes du monde financier...

carry trade remis en selle sur le yen en tout cas...

comment ameliorer des stats...
le probleme,c est aque ca fausse toutes les comparaisons avec le passe...et surtout on ne sait plus ce qu on mesure...
admettons aux US une inflation sous estimee de 3 ou 4 %..comment lire les autres stats,notamment le pouvoir d achat...(d ou la crise actuelle a mon avis aussi)

En septembre 2007, l'Etat a décidé que les statistiques officielles du chômage seraient celles de l'Insee. L'Institut national de la statistique a arrêté de publier les chiffres mensuels du chômage selon la définition du Bureau international du travail, pour ne publier que des statistiques trimestrielles, tirées de son enquête sur l'emploi. Seul défaut de cette nouvelle méthodologie, selon ACDC : l'Insee ne considère pas comme chômeurs les personnes qui maintiennent leur inscription à l'ANPE mais ne signalent pas d'autres démarches actives de recherche d'emplois. "Exclure ces personnes a permis à l'Insee de faire baisser d'un point le taux de chômage", souligne Thomas Coutrot.
Le problème, selon le collectif, est désormais la mesure de la précarité de l'emploi, davantage que celle du taux de chômage. "Le 5 juin, l'Insee a modifié le mode de calcul du taux de sous-emploi" qui indique la proportion de personnes à temps partiel voulant travailler davantage. Ce taux, qui augmentait régulièrement depuis 2003, est brutalement passé de 5,6 % au dernier trimestre 2007 à 4,4 % au premier trimestre 2008. ACDC soupçonne un simple changement de formulation dans le questionnaire de l'Insee d'être à l'origine de cette baisse.

Nouveaux PB ?

Banks Uneasy About $6 Trillion Credit Lines, Citigroup Says

June 10 (Bloomberg) -- Banks are concerned that companies may draw on $6 trillion of loan commitments they made before the credit crunch, adding to pressure on their balance sheets, Citigroup Inc. analysts said.

Companies from luxury carmaker Porsche SE in Stuttgart, Germany to wireless company Sprint Nextel Corp. in Overland Park, Kansas, drew at least $21 billion of bank lines this year as borrowing costs rose. Lenders had $6.1 trillion in untapped commitments at the end of 2007 up from $3.3 trillion in 2003, according to Citigroup estimates.

``We suspect many banks remain uneasy about their committed loan facilities,'' Citigroup analysts led by Hans Lorenzen in London wrote in a note to clients published on June 6. Companies typically maintain credit lines to back the financing of their day-to-day operations. They don't usually draw on the loans.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&si...