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| Sujet : ARGUMENTS DES BEARS | |
Axa chute après les avertissements du Munich Re et Hannover Re
PARIS, 25 juillet (Reuters) - L'action Axa < AXA > chute de plus de 8% vendredi en fin de matinée, affectée comme l'ensemble de son secteur en Europe par le "profit warning" du numéro deux mondial de la réassurance Munich Re < MUENCH.RUECKVERS.VNA O.N. > et une mise en garde sur l'avenir d'une autre société allemande, Hannover Re .
Munich Re a annoncé que les perturbations sur les marchés financiers dans le monde affecteraient ses résultats du second trimestre. Le groupe prévoit en conséquence un bénéfice 2008 inférieur à la fourchette de 3,0-3,4 milliards d'euros, tout en restant supérieur à deux milliards.
De son côté, Hannover Re a déclaré qu'il lui serait difficile d'atteindre ses objectifs annuels si la situation ne se calmait pas sur les marchés financiers.
Vers 11h35, Axa perd 8,04% à 18,25 euros, dans un volume de 8,6 millions de pièces - le plus fort du marché - alors que Scor < SCOR > cède 7,06% à 14,47 euros et Euler Hermès 7,91% à 47,06 euros.
L'indice DJ Stoxx des assureurs en Europe perd 6,3% sur ces nouvelles, plombé par Munich Re qui chute de plus de 12% et Hannover Re qui abandonne plus de 15%.
"Ce n'est pas bon pour la vision du secteur de l'assurance par les investisseurs. Cet avertissement ne resulte pas d'investissements douteux mais du portefeuilel d'actions de Munich Re et cela pourrait aussi toucher les concurrents", commente un analyste sous couvert d'anonymat
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U.S. home foreclosure filings rose 14 percent in the second quarter, the eighth consecutive quarterly climb, and more than doubled from the same period a year-earlier, real estate data firm RealtyTrac said on Friday.
Home foreclosure filings during the second quarter were reported on 739,714 U.S. properties, up 121 percent from a year earlier, RealtyTrac, an online market of foreclosure properties, said in a report.
The figure is a total of default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions between April and June.
"Although much of the fallout from foreclosures is being driven by rampant activity in a few states, such as Nevada, California, Florida, Ohio, Arizona and Michigan, most areas of the country are seeing at least some increase in foreclosure activity," James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac, said in a statement.
Indeed, 48 of 50 states and 95 out of the nation's 100 largest metro areas experienced year-over-year increases in foreclosure activity in the second quarter, he said.
The surge in foreclosures indicates an increasing number of homeowners are struggling to make mortgage payments amid the worst U.S. housing market downturn since the Great Depression.
RealtyTrac, based in Irvine, California, said the national foreclosure rate in the second quarter was one foreclosure filing for every 171 U.S. households.
Properties that have been foreclosed on or repurchased by a bank accounted for 30 percent of total foreclosure activity in the quarter, up from 24 percent in the first quarter, Saccacio said.
"This shift in the distribution of activity indicates that there is a progression toward purging the problem loans out of the system -- at which point the housing market can regain some sense of normalcy. Of course, if another surge in defaults occurs, which could well happen later this year, it would refill the foreclosure pipeline and prolong the recovery," he said.
Nevada had the highest foreclosure rate in the country, with one foreclosure filing for every 43 households, followed by California and Arizona.
All three states had been among the hottest U.S. housing markets during the boom years from 2000 to 2005.
Default rates and foreclosures have jumped as the housing market deteriorated.
As interest rates on adjustable rate mortgages reset higher, many homeowners who have been unable to sell their homes or refinance existing home loans amid a drop in home prices have been forced into foreclosure.
Nevada had 24,657 foreclosure filings in the second quarter, up nearly 26 percent from the previous quarter and up 147 percent from the second quarter of 2007.
California foreclosure activity in the second quarter increased 19 percent from the previous quarter.
One in every 65 California households received a foreclosure filing during the quarter.
California, the most populous U.S. state, reported 202,599 foreclosure filings, the most of any state and up 198 percent from the second quarter of 2007.
Arizona had one foreclosure filing for every 70 households in the second quarter, with 37,230 filings, up nearly 36 percent from the previous quarter and 272 percent higher than the second quarter of 2007, RealtyTrac said.
Florida ranked fourth with one foreclosure filing for every 78 households in the second quarter, with 109,433 filings, up nearly 25 percent from the previous quarter and 182 percent higher than the second quarter of 2007, RealtyTrac said.
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la depeche venait de Bloomberg live....:)))
PARIS (Reuters) - Le climat des affaires dans les services s'est fortement dégradé en juillet en France, selon l'enquête mensuelle de conjoncture dans ce secteur publiée par l'Insee.
L'indicateur synthétique qui résume l'opinion des chefs d'entreprise sur la conjoncture dans les services a chuté de sept points à 94, un plus bas depuis septembre 2003 (il était alors à 93) et sous sa moyenne de long terme qui est 100.
Le CAC ne veut plus baisser visiblement..belle force relative....on va voir les stats US..
les CDS sur WAMU progressent encore nettement....on va voir intraday
Meetic -36%...vivement que Mittal fasse un PW !!!
petite pensée qui m a traversé...le marché du pétrole est il manipulé de facon gigantesque ?? pas un mot depuis 15 jours sur des problemes au Nigéria.....comme si les rebelles s étaient évaporés......
Médias silencieux ou manipulation de ces rebelles ??
juste quand je parle de ca...depeche
2 ingenieurs petroliers enlevés au Nigéria....incroyable !!
nouveau miracle des stats US......durable good orders en forte hausse.....il semble que les exportations se portent bien.....de quoi ? vers qui ??
(amha ca pourrait bien etre des dépenses gouvernementales..et militaires..vu les chiffres annoncés depuis quelques jours par le secteur de la défense)
ca permet aux indices de repasser vert...comme quoi,la vie est belle.....
le portefeuille de Freddie en forte hausse encore en juin,comme quoi le management ne joue pas la meme partition que le gouvernement.....par ailleurs,le taux de défaut passe de 0.81 à 0.86 %
l autre génie européen
ROME (Reuters) - Le Premier ministre italien Silvio Berlusconi déclare avoir trouvé les capitaux dont a besoin la compagnie nationale italienne Alitalia pour échapper à la faillite.
"J'y travaille (...) Pour le moment, nous avons deux choses: les capitaux nécessaires et le slogan : J'aime l'Italie, je vole avec Alitalia", a-t-il déclaré à l'issue du conseil des ministres.
En vacances? Pas de panique. C'est écrit d'une façon différente ! 
Crocs Inc. (CROX) shares tumbled 47% premarket as the maker of popular shoes warned after the bell Thursday that its second-quarter results will be worse than expected and offered a disappointing outlook for the year, saying cautious retailers are keeping inventories lean.
Expedia à l instant
Dernière minute: jusqu’à -46% sur vos vacances !
New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in June
increased $1.6 billion or 0.8 percent to $215.4 billion,
the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the
second consecutive monthly increase and followed a 0.1
percent May increase. Excluding transportation, new
orders increased 2.0 percent. Excluding defense, new
orders increased 0.1 percent.
Primary metals, up five of the last six months, had the
largest increase, $1.1 billion or 5.1 percent to $23.1
billion.
Inventories
Inventories of manufactured durable goods in June, up
eleven of the last twelve months, increased $1.8 billion
or 0.5 percent to $332.2 billion. This was also at the
highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS
basis in 1992 and followed a 0.5 percent May increase.
Capital Goods
Nondefense new orders for capital goods in June
decreased $2.3 billion or 3.2 percent to $71.4 billion.
donc ce sont les dépenses militaires....merci Serge....
en tout cas,soit c est l Iran,soit le gouvernement dépense pour soutenir l économie.....
c est vraiment donner l illusion complete que les choses ne se dégradent pas...et par le biais de la dette..puisque les recettes fiscales baissent à toute vitesse....quelle stratégie de barjots !!
Surprise Lift in Durable Goods Orders
Orders for big-ticket items unexpectedly rose last month, the government said on Friday, on a surge in spending on military-related products. The report suggested that the manufacturing sector has muddled through the downturn on the strength of military goods and export sales.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/26/business/economy...
vont ils passer le week end ...
Gimme Credit To Wamu: Gimme A Break
Maurna Desmond, 07.24.08, 6:05 PM ET
Gimme Credit, a bond-research organization, is sticking by its story: Washington Mutual is in trouble.
While several analysts published notes expressing concerns about the firm, the bank’s reputation took a real shot when Kathleen Shanley of Gimme Credit wrote: “We won’t use the phrase “run†on the bank, but we would be remiss if we did not observe that many creditors have quietly been pulling funds.â€
Rattled by Shaney's report, Wamu's shares lost 13.8%, or 64 cents, to $4.01, Thursday. The bank denied the implications of Shanley's report and said it obtained most of its short-term financing from its own deposit base, but the researcher told Forbes.com she was standing by her analysis.
Shanley said that other banks have reduced their lending to Washington Mutual The firm's monthly intra-bank borrowing declined to $75.0 million at in June, down from $2.0 billion at the end of 2007 and down 71.7% from $3.4 billion a year ago.
Further evidence: Washington Mutual’s subordinated notes due in 2014 are currently yielding 15.0% at a time when five-year Treasury bonds return just 3.3%. That large differential indicates lenders are hestitant to give the bank their money.
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Worldwide Recession Coming
A worldwide recession is coming.
China, India, Brazil, and third world economies simply cannot pick up the slack for the US, UK, EU, and now New Zealand. For more on the situation in the US and UK please see Deflationary Hurricanes to Hit U.S. and U.K.
Admittedly New Zealand is just a tiny cog in the global economy. Nonetheless it offers confirmation of things seen elsewhere.
Australia and Canada will follow in a mind boggling drop once the air is let out of the China commodities balloon. Brace for a worldwide hard landing. One is coming.
The New Zealand economy is already in recession, according to economists. It contracted by 0.3 per cent in the first quarter with a further negative result for the second quarter widely expected when figures are published later this year.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
SP abaisse le rating sur 26 RMBS deals à D
A titre personnel,j ai l impression que c est en train de lacher de partout....
Fannie et Freddie encore en baisse sans les shorteurs...-11% pour Fannie
les news sur WAMU
American Axle perd 644 m de $..fournisseur de GM
le dow et le CAC montent malgré tout ca...tellement étonnant....la gestion du risque assez étonnante..finir long un vendredi dans un tel contexte....
| Sujet : ARGUMENTS DES BEARS | |
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