Analyse Technique | Analyse dynamique | sujet : ARGUMENTS DES BEARS

Commercial bankruptcies soar, reflecting widening economic woes

WASHINGTON — Driven by a sour economy and skittish consumers, U.S. business bankruptcies saw their sharpest quarterly rise in two years, jumping 17 percent in the second quarter of 2008, according to an analysis by McClatchy.

Commercial filings for the first half of 2008 are up 45 percent from last year, as the national climate for commerce continues to deteriorate amid rising energy and food costs, mounting job losses, tighter credit and a reticence among consumers to part with discretionary income.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/economics/story/44717.html

Panic By The Fed: Anatomy of a Short-Squeeze

Financial companies are desperate for capital but their stock prices are so low that any issuance would be dilution death for the companies. The government is desperately trying to keep the financial system together. Add that up and you get the possibility of a great manipulation.

How would the government engineer a rally in financial stocks so that these companies can sell stock to raise capital at a reasonable or at least palatable dilution level?

What a coincidence.

But if you look at how the banks “beat” their earnings the coincidence becomes clear. WFC took the unprecedented step of extending charge-off acknowledgment from 120 days to 160 days. And JPM was even more aggressive. It actually lowered its loan loss reserves quarter to quarter.

Article complet:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

Aprés les subprimes, les platics:


Behind the walls of the plastic prison

The mess
Nationwide, 2 million homes sit vacant. Home sales are at a nine-year low. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says that housing finance has not been this bad since the Depression. We still don’t know the full extent of the colossal sub-prime rip-off, but a recent Bank of America study did some guesstimating on the scale of the consequences of the “credit crisis.” The meltdown in the U.S. sub-prime real estate market, the bank said, had led to a global loss of $7.7 trillion dollars in stock market value since October.

While many eyes are focusing on the housing meltdown and its hugely negative effect on an economy clearly moving into recession, few are paying attention to the next bubble expected to burst: credit cards. Combined with the sub-prime losses, such a credit card nightmare has the potential, experts say, of bringing down the entire financial system and global economy.

You and your credit card have become key players in the highly unstable financial crunch, in which mortgage lender cupidity combined with bank credit card greed, with both wedded to financial institution deregulation supported by both political parties and made manifestly worse by Bush administration support-the-rich policies. It has brought us to a brink not seen since just before the Great Depression.

Indeed, homeowners cashed out $1.2 trillion from their home equity from 2002 to 2007 to pay down credit card debts and to cover other costs of living, according to the public policy research organization Demos.

*Financial analysts say that in the U.S. alone more than $850 billion in unpaid credit card balances is at stake and fast approaching $1 trillion, roughly the same amount as in the sub-prime market.

*CNN reports that worldwide, consumers have racked up more than $2.2 trillion in purchases and cash advances on major credit cards in just the last year.

*The unpaid debt portion of this is continuing to pile up, with U.S. consumers last year adding $68 billion against their credit lines, boosting credit card debt by 7.8 percent, the largest increase in seven years, just when the last recession was beginning.

*Even as they spent, consumers have been going into default at a stunning rate. The percentage of people delinquent on their credit cards is soaring, credit card companies are now writing off somewhere near 5 percent of payments.

*By last fall, the major banks were setting aside billions for loan-loss reserves while anticipating an increase of 20 percent in non-payments over the next two to four quarters.

*Capital One, one of the biggest credit card banks, was forced to write off $1.9 billion in bad debt just in the last quarter of 2007.

*By October, according to a survey of only the leading credit card banks by the Associated Press, the value of credit card accounts at least 30 days late was up 26 percent from the previous year, to $17.3 billion. Serious delinquencies among some of the biggest lenders rose by 50 percent or more in the value of accounts that were at least 90 days delinquent.

*Making matters worse, or more widespread throughout the economy, just as with mortgage debt, credit card debt is put into pools that are then resold to investment houses, other banks and institutional investors. About 45 percent of the nation’s $900 plus billion in credit card debt has been packaged into these pools, and so many companies, not just a few, are at risk of being forced out of business by credit card debt write-offs.

Suite:

http://www.vcreporter.com/cms/story/detail/behind_...

Les cartes de crédit US pour les Nuls:

Credit card industry facts, debt statistics 2006-2008

This page contains credit card-related statistics -- including numbers on credit card debt, credit card delinquencies, credit scores, credit card interest rates, bankruptcies and more -- compiled by CreditCards.com staff. It will be updated regularly as we receive new or updated credit card data.(Note: Some data may appear multiple times on the page because the information is applicable in multiple categories.)

http://www.creditcards.com/credit-card-news/credit...

Paulson en ce moment sur CNN ... pas du tout l'air de croire ce qu'il raconte ... il ne repond pas aux questions du journaliste sur Fannie Mae & Co ... pas clair du tout ! ...

Ah le journaliste parle d'un second cheque pour stimuler le machin aux USA mais Paulson ne veut pas speculer la dessus !

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Federal Reserve policymaker Gary Stern says the central bank shouldn't wait for housing and financial markets to stabilize before it begins raising interest rates, according to an interview with Bloomberg News.

C'est déja ça:

Tropical Storm DOLLY

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml...

Paulson `Very Optimistic' on Freddie, Fannie Rescue

Paulson is pushing Congress to authorize the Treasury to purchase equity stakes in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which account for about half of the $12 trillion mortgage market, and expand government-backed credit lines to them. He also said he wants the legislation to include a measure that gives ``real teeth'' to the companies' regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.

The Treasury secretary is scheduled to spend the next two days in New York for meetings with executives from financial services companies and to give a speech July 22 on the condition of the U.S. economy and capital markets.

Regulators are aiming to resuscitate investor confidence in the firms after their shares this month fell to the lowest in more than 17 years on concern they may have insufficient capital to survive the collapse of the housing market.

``Their regulator has said they have adequate capital,'' Paulson told CNN. ``There's some worry, some concern in the capital markets, and that is why we came in with a plan to assure the markets that there will be adequate capital for them to meet all their needs.''

Under Paulson's proposal, Treasury would increase Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's credit lines from $2.25 billion each, buy shares in them if needed and give the Federal Reserve a role in setting their capital requirements.

Fannie Mae CEO Daniel Mudd, 49, was paid $11.6 million in salary, stock awards and other compensation last year. Freddie Mac Chief Richard Syron, 64, received $18.3 million in total pay last year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si...

A lire:

Bank Stocks: Fear Trumps Fundamentals

http://www.cnbc.com/id/25738446

Indeed, Citigroup Chief Financial Officer Gary Crittenden on Friday said deteriorating consumer credit will have a "meaningful" impact on results for the rest of 2008.

And JPMorgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon on Thursday said credit losses on the safest, prime mortgages could triple from current levels -- "for a while, not forever," he said.

ECRI's Leading Indicators in Recession Territory

Thursday, July 17, 2008 | 11:45 AM
in Data Analysis | Economy
The Leading Economic Indicators (LEIs) have not been are not my favorite of all data points.

Long term readers may recall my ire over the way the Conference Bureau tweaked the calculating of the Leading Economic Indicators' in terms of the yield curve in order to make them more bullish. Hence, why I look at them somewhat askance (NT's Paul Kasriel has convinced me this is a hasty opinion on my part).

Rather than rely on the Conference Board's Juiced Data, we can turn instead to the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) data leading indicators. Their indicators have a very good track record of forecasting recessions.



Leading Economic Indicators Index in Recession Territory

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/files/ecri_...

The ECRI’s weekly leading economic index is now deep into the territory associated with recessions. Its down over 10% this month, and this week is running down 8% on a year-over-year basis. As the chart above shows, that is something that only happens when the economy is in recession.

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/economy/ind...

Glum Consumers Focus on Cutting Debt, Savings

Americans, unnerved by a worsening job market and sky-high oil prices, plan to pay off debt and boost savings in preparation for expected further economic turmoil, according to a survey from Reuters and the University of Michigan.


Half of U.S. consumers polled said they plan to speed up reducing their debt and a third said they plan to save more in the year ahead, according to the survey, which will be released next week.

For the broader economy, debt reduction and savings increases by consumers, who account for more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy, will coincide with a deepening economic downturn in the second half of 2008 and early 2009, he said.

Suite:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/25735696

Aprés les Subprimes et les primes, les Cartes:

Chez Citigroup :

1er Trimestre 2008:

De fait, la dégradation est spectaculaire. La branche de financement de la consommation de Citi aux Etats-Unis affiche dans son ensemble une perte de 432 millions de dollars, alors que son résultat net dépassait 2 milliards de dollars un an plus tôt (voir tableau). Les cartes de crédit ont vu leur résultat s’effondrer de 60 % à près de 400 millions de dollars, après une provision de 493 millions. Le crédit à la consommation passe de près de 500 millions de dollars de bénéfice à 1,2 milliard de dollars de pertes - la provision est cette fois
de 2,42 milliards de dollars. Et cette activité « va continuer à se détériorer », prévient le directeur financier Gary Crittenden.

2eme Trimestre 2008:
Citigroup's chief financial officer Gary Crittenden warned during a conference call with analysts that loss rates in Citi's card division could exceed historical peaks.
"Credit obviously continues to be an issue," said Crittenden.

Chez JPMORGAN:

Credit card defaults could pose a big problem for the bank going forward. During the second quarter, JPMorgan charged off nearly 5 percent of its $153 billion outstanding in credit cards — that's about $7.6 billion.
The bank said it expects losses of about 5 percent or more in credit cards during the second half of the year, and possibly 6 percent on average in 2009.

La crise est finie.

L'art de se F..... de la G.... du monde:

Tiré de L'AGEFI, journal pourtant sérieux.

1er T08, 60 contre 66, Prévu 57.
2eme T08 , 53 contre 67, Prévu 50.

Ils seront toujours contents, les ricains, et l'AGEFI rempli ses pages.


Wells Fargo laisse entrevoir des gains de parts de marché dans le crédit immobilier

le 17/04/2008

La « banque du Far West » annonce 2,03 milliards de dollars de provisions compensées par la croissance des crédits et des dépôts

La Wells Fargo aura tracé son chemin au premier trimestre plutôt mieux que certains concurrents. La cinquième banque américaine, également numéro deux du crédit immobilier aux Etats-Unis, a publié mercredi un bénéfice trimestriel en baisse de 11 % mais supérieur aux estimations des analystes financiers.

Le bénéfice net du groupe de San Francisco est revenu au premier trimestre à 2,0 milliards de dollars, soit 60 cents par action, contre 2,24 milliards (66 cents/action) un an plus tôt. Son produit net bancaire a augmenté de 12 % à 10,56 milliards de dollars et ses charges ont diminué de 1 % à 5,46 milliards. Les analystes anticipaient en moyenne un bénéfice par action de 57 cents pour un produit net bancaire de 10,4 milliards de dollars, selon Reuters Estimates


Wells Fargo rassure le marché avec ses résultats trimestriels

Par Virginie Deneuville le 17/07/2008


La cinquième banque américaine a dévoilé des bénéfices supérieurs aux attentes et accru son dividende

Les banques américaines sont placées cette semaine sur le devant de la scène. Alors que les résultats de Merrill Lynch, JPMorgan Chase et Citigroup sont attendus aujourd'hui et demain, Wells Fargo a poursuivi le bal des publications mercredi en insufflant un message rassurant. Certes, les résultats de la cinquième banque américaine se révèlent en recul, marqués par un bénéfice par action de 53 cents au deuxième trimestre, contre 67 cents un an plus tôt. Mais cette performance se révèle supérieure aux attentes, le marché visant un bénéfice de 50 cents, selon le consensus Thomson Financial.

"L art traite de la vie... Le marche de l art, de l argent" :)

El arte pinta bien con la crisis

El dinero de los millonarios rusos y árabes ceba la burbuja en el mercado del arte

"El arte trata de la vida; el mercado del arte, de dinero". A esta frase de Damien Hirst, el artista más rico del mundo, quien ha sido capaz de crear y vender este año una calavera de platino y diamantes por la astronómica cifra de 63 millones de euros, se podría añadir "de mucho dinero". El arte contemporáneo y moderno está viviendo el mejor momento de su historia. Los nuevos e ingentes flujos de capital procedentes de Rusia, China, India y los países árabes están provocando que la crisis económica se deslice por el arte con la suavidad de la témpera sobre el papel. Además, la debilidad del dólar hace que los compradores europeos se lancen en tropel a comprar artistas americanos o que vendan sus obras contra el billete verde. E incluso se da, como si se tratara del petróleo, la especulación más descarada.[...]

Article complet : http://www.elpais.com/articulo/dinero/arte/pinta/b...