Analyse Technique | Analyse dynamique | sujet : ARGUMENTS DES BEARS

salut à tous !!
t'es tombé du lit serge ?

Me léve à 5H.

Habitudes restent.

Citation de : serge.harimax (au 14-05-2008 07:34:43)

Question: Je croyais que le cours du yuan était décidé par les autorités chinoises.

Le yuan est il tradable ?

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je crois qu en fait les autorites chinoises fixent une borne haute et basse de fluctuations

ya un div qui tombe aujourd'hui ?

il est foutu de nous faire un gap up Daily le batard !!!

Secteur financier:

Trimestre calamiteux pour Dexia à cause de sa filiale US


http://www.lecho.be/actualité/entreprises_finance/...

Retail sales were up 2.0% from a year ago and inflation is about 4%, meaning real inflation adjusted sales were -2%. That's exactly what happens in recessions.

In this chart I use a 12 month moving average to smooth out the data, currently we are at 0.4% real sales growth from a year ago which is nearly identical to the worst of the 2001 recession.

Of note: I (and others) have thought November 2007 was when the recession started and sales at that point (see chart) are nearly identical to sales at the start of the 2001 recession.

Was on a conference call this morning where one of the experts said the market would like the retail sales report because excluding autos, sales were up 0.5% this month. This is the second time I've heard this phrase

"Excluding the bad stuff, things are looking pretty good"

2 Real life examples:

1) Retail sales excluding autos (excluding the stuff going down) were up.

2) Earnings excluding the finance sector (where earnings are dropping) look good.

Since the economy is too diverse and complex for everything to act in unison, by definition if you exclude the stuff going the wrong direction, the remaining stuff will be going in the right direction. (source : pbp.com)

PARIS (Reuters) - L'indice des prix de grande consommation a encore augmenté de 0,3% en avril dans la grande distribution en France, après une hausse de 0,2% en mars, affichant sur un an un gain de 5,3% contre 4,9%, a annoncé mercredi l'Insee.

resultats pas trop mal de grosses boites du CAC....donc indice vert....euro en baisse encore à 1.5415...un retour sous 1.50 avec un pétrole à 125...oulalala

on va voir la data pétrole aussi aujourd hui....pas grande importance recemment...mais si il y a une mauvaise surprise....:))

US futures flat en attendant le CPI....

c est l été en ce moment..tres peu de news ..et rien de majeur pour les bulls ou les bears

Consumer confidence near record low: report

Tue May 13, 5:07 PM ET



NEW YORK (Reuters) - Confidence of American consumers continued to plummet as a result of weakening economic conditions and escalating gasoline prices, according to a weekly survey published on Tuesday.

The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index fell to -47 in the week ended May 11 from -46 the previous week, and is three points away from its all-time low of -50 hit in February 1992. The index ranges from -100 to +100.

The news outlets said 77 percent of Americans described the economy as getting worse, matching a 27-year high reached in October and November 1990.

"The cause seems clear," they said. "On top of the credit and housing crises and generally weakening economic conditions, retail gasoline prices climbed 11 cents in the past week to another record, $3.72 per gallon. The Energy Department increased its oil and gas price estimates for the year."

Two of the consumer confidence index's three components fell. Positive views of personal finances shed one percentage point to 46 percent and views on the national economy also fell one percentage point, to 13 percent.

Views on the buying climate were unchanged at 20 percent.

Confidence measures are generally viewed as a barometer of consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the U.S. economy. However, economists note that consumers do not always act in accordance with their statements to surveys.

The ABC/Washington Post consumer confidence survey was based on a sample of about 1,000 interviews conducted in the four weeks to May 11 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Editing by Dan Grebler)

secteur bancaire UK sous pression, avec des baisses notables

US foreclosure filings surge 65 percent in April

By ALEX VEIGA, AP Business Writer
6 minutes ago



LOS ANGELES - More U.S. homeowners fell behind on mortgage payments last month, driving the number of homes facing foreclosure up 65 percent versus the same month last year and contributing to a deepening slide in home values, a research company said Tuesday.

Nationwide, 243,353 homes received at least one foreclosure-related filing in April, up 65 percent from 147,708 in the same month last year and up 4 percent since March, RealtyTrac Inc. said.

Nevada, Arizona, California and Florida were among the hardest hit states, with metropolitan areas in California and Florida accounting for nine of the top 10 areas with the highest rate of foreclosure, the company said.

Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac monitors default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions.

One in every 519 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing in April. Foreclosure filings increased from a year earlier in all but eight states.

The combination of weak housing sales, falling home values, tighter mortgage lending criteria and a slowing U.S. economy has left financially strapped homeowners with fewer options to avoid foreclosure. Many can't find buyers or owe more than their home is worth and can't get refinanced into an affordable loan.

Efforts by government and the mortgage industry to stem the tide of foreclosures aren't keeping up with the rising number of troubled homeowners.

The April data show nearly half of the properties received an initial notice of default, suggesting many homes were new entrants to the foreclosure process.

"We're still sitting at roughly the same percentage of loans handled in any way successfully as we were a year ago, and the volume (of foreclosure filings) still keeps going up," said Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's vice president of marketing. "It's apparent that what they've tried so far isn't working."

The U.S. House passed a bill last week that would offer government insurance on $300 billion in new mortgages to refinance loans for an estimated half-million borrowers facing foreclosure, particularly those who now owe more than their houses are worth because of declining values.

House lawmakers also passed a bill that would send $15 billion to states to buy and fix foreclosed homes.

Still, should the homeowner aid package clear the Senate, it faces a potential hurdle in the White House, which has threatened to veto the plan, arguing it's too risky and amounts to a lender bailout.

Even if a legislative compromise is reached, it could come too late for homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages scheduled to reset to higher rates this month and the next.

More than 1 million home foreclosures are forecast for 2008.

"It doesn't look like the volume is going to slow down any time soon," Sharga said.

More than 54,500 properties were repossessed by lenders nationwide in April. In all, about 2 percent of U.S. households were in some stage of foreclosure during the month, RealtyTrac said.

Still, as foreclosed properties pile up, they add to the inventory of homes on the market and can drag down home prices. The impact is felt mostly in regions where foreclosures are concentrated, such as Southern California, the Las Vegas area, South Florida and parts of Arizona.

Nevada posted the worst foreclosure rate in the nation, with one in every 146 households receiving a foreclosure-related notice last month, nearly four times the national rate.

The number of properties with a filing jumped 95 percent versus April last year but declined 5 percent from March.

California had the most properties facing foreclosure at 64,683, an increase of 112 percent from April 2007. The number of properties declined less than 1 percent from March.

The state posted the second-highest foreclosure rate in the country, with one in every 204 households receiving a foreclosure-related notice.

California metro areas accounted for six of the 10 U.S. metropolitan areas with the highest foreclosure rates, led by Merced, with one in every 66 households receiving a foreclosure notice.

Arizona had the third-highest foreclosure rate, with one in every 224 households reporting a foreclosure filing in April. A total of 11,620 homes reported at least one filing, up nearly 181 percent from a year earlier and up 26 percent from the previous month.

Like Las Vegas and inland regions in California, areas of Arizona saw a sharp run-up in speculator-driven home prices and new home construction during the housing boom.

Florida had 35,264 homes reporting at least one foreclosure filing last month, a 146 percent jump from a year earlier and a 17 percent hike from March. That translates into a foreclosure rate of one in every 242 households, the fourth-highest in the nation.

The other states among the 10 with the highest foreclosure rates in April were Colorado, Maryland, Georgia, Ohio, Michigan and Massachusetts.

___

On the Net:

RealtyTrac Inc.: http://www.realtytrac.com

La crise est terminée, tu ferme la file, Chris ?

Tu fermeS.

`Short-Sellers' Haven't Had It as Good Since 1990, SocGen Says

By Alexis Xydias

May 14 (Bloomberg) -- ``Short-sellers,'' or people who make money when shares fall, have the widest choice of stocks since at least 1990, as corporate finances deteriorate and profit growth slows, according to a Societe Generale SA strategist.

About 100 European stocks currently fulfill the triple criteria needed to be a ``short'' candidate, the brokerage wrote in a report to investors dated yesterday. The requirements include an expensive share price, worsening company accounts, and lack of ``capital discipline'' on behalf of management. On average, the ``short'' list has had 20 stocks, Societe Generale wrote. In the U.S., the number has surged to 174 from 30.

``The opportunities are on the short, not the long side,'' the bank's London-based strategist James Montier wrote. ``Perhaps it is time to join the dark side.''

In a short sale, speculators sell borrowed stock on expectations its price will drop, allowing them to buy back the shares at a cheaper value and pocket the difference when paying back the loan.

The MSCI World Index tumbled 18 percent between November and mid-March, as the collapse of the U.S. subprime-mortgage market caused $335 billion in bank losses and pushed the world's largest economy close to a recession. The global index for stocks has rebounded 11 percent since March 17.

`Short' Candidates

A ``shorting'' strategy in Europe has underperformed taking a long position in 18 of the past 22 years, Montier wrote. The brokerage's European short basket has yielded an average annual return of 6 percent since 1985, compared with a 13 percent annual increase for the market, the report said.

Societe Generale's basket of ``short'' candidates in Europe currently includes Hamburg-based Axel Springer AG, the region's biggest newspaper publisher, Norway's Petroleum Geo-Services ASA, the world's third-largest surveyor of oil and natural-gas fields, and Switzerland-based Straumann Holding AG, the world's second-largest maker of dental implants.

There were no U.S. stocks mentioned in the report.

Montier specializes in so-called behavioral finance, or the effect of human biases in the markets. He was voted best global strategist in Thomson Extel's annual investor survey last year.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alexis Xydias in London

Le FMI ne voit pas de reprise économique mondiale avant 2009

Présente à la réunion, Abby Joseph Cohen, stratégiste en chef de Goldman Sachs, a abondé dans le sens de Dominique Strauss-Kahn, prévenant que "le mal n'était pas guéri" pour l'économie américaine.

Elle a toutefois déclaré qu'elle s'attendait à ce que la première économie mondiale se stabilise au second semestre et qu'elle renoue avec la croissance en 2009.

"Lors des prochains mois, les statistiques économiques aux Etats-Unis vont montrer des signes de stabilité et nous pensons que l'année 2009 sera une année de croissance économique", a-t-elle prédit."Ce ne sera pas une croissance de 4% (...), mais elle sera positive", a-t-elle dit.

Ca sent muvais pour les Bears, le principal soutien se barre.