Analyse Technique | Analyse dynamique | sujet : ARGUMENTS DES BEARS
Forum Bourse : Accueil | Analyse Technique | Analyse dynamique | Sujet : ARGUMENTS DES BEARS
#820683Posté le : le 08-10-2008 06:30:44
   
Computer hardware firms feeling market woes
Analysts from Citigroup, Barclays cut estimates on H-P, Dell and IBM By Rex Crum, MarketWatch Last update: 4:55 p.m. EDT Oct. 7, 2008Comments: 4SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Wall Street sentiment continued to lean on the technology sector Tuesday after a pair of brokers cut back their earnings estimates for companies that sell computer hardware and other equipment. For several months, many of the leading hardware companies were thought of as being largely immune to the fallout from the credit crisis as it was mostly affecting the financial-services industry. But as time has gone on, and the crisis has worsened, more attention is being paid to how big-name computer hardware makers are tied to the financial sector and how troubles there could end up hurting the bottom lines of firms such as IBM Corp. and Hewlett-Packard Co. In addition to the credit crunch, analysts say the likelihood of consumers tightening their belts and the effect of foreign currency exchange rates are also expected to have an impact on third-quarter earnings reports. "U.S. consumer PC growth has been positively correlated with disposable income growth during the past decade," Richard Gardner of Citigroup wrote in a report Tuesday. "Disposable income will almost surely decline during the coming year, causing persistently high consumer PC unit growth rates to decelerate sharply." Gardner added that businesses are also likely to cut back spending on PCs, though investments in areas such as virtualization and consolidation technologies will likely remain because those are geared toward reducing the costs of electricity, real estate and personnel. Hardware makers saw their shares bruised Tuesday. Sun Microsystems fell more than 10%, while Dell gave up almost 9%. Apple fell more than by the time the market closed, IBM ended the day down by almost 5% and H-P shares gave up 3%. Big Blue sinks Until about two weeks ago, IBM was considered to be as solid an investment as any company could be in the current economic environment. Even after pulling back from its August high of $130 a share, Big Blue's stock was up about 5% for the year. But then the failure of Lehman Brothers and the back-and-forth over the $700 billion Wall Street bailout plan began to erode some of the confidence in IBM, which draws a large portion of its revenue from the financial sector and also provides some financing for its customers -- leading to some concerns about a direct impact from the credit crunch. On Tuesday, Barclays Capital analyst Ben Reitzes cut his rating on IBM's stock to equal weight from overweight -- one day after the stock fell below $100 for the first time since the first of the year. "Almost 30% of IBM's revenue comes from the financial services vertical and while about 3/4 of that amount is arguably 'recurring,' checks indicate sales in this area seem to be slowing even though IBM has executed well year to date," Reitzes wrote. The analyst left his third-quarter estimates on IBM unchanged, but lowered his forecasts for IBM's fourth quarter to a profit of $2.88 a share on $29.2 billion in sales from $3.19 a share and revenue of $30.4 billion. Reitzes also cut his rating on EMC Corp. to equal weight from overweight, saying that while EMC executed well in the third quarter, "it is prudent to prepare for some abrupt [earnings and sales] deceleration." Among the risks cited by Reitzes was EMC's reliance on the financial services industry for about 20% of its sales, and that sales of EMC's storage technology products could soon follow the path of server sales and begin to slow down. Currency impact At Citigroup, Gardner warned that the few areas of investment that will remain in tech are still not enough to spur overall growth in server sales, which he estimates will fall 5% in 2009. As such, the analyst cut his earnings estimates for the second half of 2008, and all of 2009 and 2010 on IBM, H-P, Dell and Sun. He also said that recent moves in the dollar against the euro and the British pound, "will place varying degrees of pressure on reported revenue for all IT hardware companies beginning in the September quarter." Gardner said there will likely be a negative impact on European demand for hardware heading into 2009 as U.S. companies will have to raise prices in order to make up for the negative impact of a stronger dollar. Still, Gardner said he believes the hardware market is "nearing a bottom," and that most of the bad news for the sector has already been priced into the majority of the main computer stocks
#820686Posté le : le 08-10-2008 06:52:29
Cut rates:
Hong Kong Lowers Base Rate; Australia Offers Longer-Term Loans Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong slashed the rate at which it lends to banks and Australia offered longer-term funding as central banks across Asia tried to stem a surge in borrowing costs that has started to choke the region's economic growth. The Japanese and Australian central banks pumped almost $22 billion into the financial system after deteriorating credit markets forced the U.K. government to consider a bailout of its biggest banks and prompted Iceland to seek loans from Russia. Hong Kong changed the way it calculates its base rate, allowing a 1 percentage point reduction to 2.5 percent effective tomorrow. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si... China May Cut Rates Again After Central Bank Yields Decline Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- China may cut interest rates as soon as this week after the yield on one-year central bank bills issued yesterday had the biggest drop this year, analysts said. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si...
#820687Posté le : le 08-10-2008 06:54:27
Homeowners with Negative Equity
by CalculatedRisk From the WSJ: Housing Pain Gauge: Nearly 1 in 6 Owners 'Under Water' About 75.5 million U.S. households own the homes they live in. After a housing slump that has pushed values down 30% in some areas, roughly 12 million households, or 16%, owe more than their homes are worth, according to Moody's Economy.com. This is close to my estimate of homeowners with negative or no equity. These homeowners are at risk for default if they experience a negative event (like divorce or health problems) or they simply decide to mail in the keys. The number will probably rise to 20 million or more by the time house prices bottom.
#820688Posté le : le 08-10-2008 06:58:07
UK: Government to Invest in Banks
by CalculatedRisk Britain’s taxpayers will tomorrow be committed to spending more than £50 billion to bail out the high-street banks in a bid to avert a cataclysmic failure of confidence, The Times learnt tonight. ... The taxpayer will take a stake in banks that seek assistance through the purchase of preference shares ... Holders of preference shares are first in line for payout of dividends but they do not carry voting rights. The bail-out is expected to be structured so that the Government also receives rights to ordinary bank shares at low prices, holding out the prospect of profits if and when banks recover. ... The part-nationalisation of the banks [will be called] “recapitalisation” ... the term used by Mr Darling ... Mr Darling confirmed that he would be making a statement before the London Stock Markets opened tomorrow and another in the Commons later. It is believed the first will come at around 7.30 am.
#820691Posté le : le 08-10-2008 07:07:55
Short-sale ban on financial stocks set to expire
WASHINGTON - A three-week-old ban against betting that financial companies' shares would fall expires Wednesday night, a move some large-scale investors say could actually help limit the punishment many of those stocks have endured in recent days. Some market experts say the unprecedented ban on short selling initiated by regulators — an effort to bolster investor confidence amid the worst financial crisis since the stock market crash of 1929 — did more harm than good at a time of historic market volatility. "Short selling is very important to our markets," said Chester Spatt, a former chief economist at the Securities and Exchange Commission, which put the ban into effect Sept. 18. The ban "isn't a panacea by any means for financial firms." Short-sellers bet against a stock. The practice, which is legal and widely used on Wall Street, involves borrowing a company's shares, selling them, and then buying them when the stock falls and returning them to the lender. The short-seller pockets the difference in price. Large-scale and professional investors were more critical of the SEC action. The ban "did more to destroy investor confidence than anything," said William Ackman, who runs New York-based Pershing Square Capital Management. He denied speculation that short sellers were to blame for causing a slide in stocks this year, and noted the Dow Jones industrials had their two biggest daily point drops ever after the ban was enacted. The SEC ban was initially set to expire last week. It was extended until 11:59 p.m. EDT Wednesday (0359 GMT Thursday), the third business day after enactment of the federal government's $700 billion financial bailout plan. The SEC could have kept the ban in place until Oct. 17 but opted not to. The agency will "take steps as necessary in the public interest to protect market integrity," SEC spokesman John Nester said Tuesday, adding that he could not comment on the ban's effectiveness because it is still in place. Spatt said the ban "was not the course that I would have taken." Regulators previously have said that short selling widened the scope of the financial crisis and contributed to the collapsing values of investment- and commercial-bank stocks in particular — and the demise of Lehman Brothers. But professional short-sellers argue they were being unfairly targeted by the SEC's prohibition, and some analysts warned of possible negative effects, including further market distortion. Ackman and other investors say the ban — which started with 799 financial companies but had grown to almost 1,000 firms by Tuesday — hurt their ability to manage their portfolios. Some say at least part of the recent stock sell-off was attributed to funds, unable to hedge their bets, being forced to unload their long positions. In the days since the ban took effect, the stock market has been battered. After the bailout plan was rejected in the House last Monday, the Dow Jones industrials lost a record 778 points. A week later, the index experienced its biggest loss ever during a trading day and marked its first close below 10,000 since 2004. On Wall Street Tuesday, stocks ended lower for the fifth straight session. The Dow fell 508.39, or 5.1 percent, to 9,447.11, which represents a drop of more than 14 percent since the ban took effect. The short-selling ban has had some unintended consequences, such as disrupting the trading strategies of institutional investors who for years have used short positions to safeguard portfolios, said Nick Perry, equities options analyst at Schaffer's Investment Research. "The idea behind the ban was to calm everybody down and the immediate response was throwing chaos into the system," he said. "The hedge funds that made up a good chunk of the market volume are pulling back because they can't short." For instance, a common strategy on Wall Street is the so-called "pairs trade." Hedge funds would routinely go long and short on two correlated stocks like Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp., both of which are protected by the ban. If the auto industry tanks, both positions offset each other. "The ban curtails buying in some stocks," Perry said. "You're basically pulling buyer demand out of the market." Despite the expiration of the short-selling ban, other SEC actions intended to bolster investor confidence and market transparency remain in place, Nester said. Those include a new rule requiring that short sellers and their broker-dealers deliver securities by the settlement date and impose penalties for failing to do so. The SEC's recent rules to provide permanent protections against abusive "naked" short selling — which involves selling shares without actually borrowing them — are constructive, said Spatt, now a finance professor and director of the Center for Financial Markets at the Tepper School of Business at Carnegie Mellon University. Moves promoting greater transparency in stock lending also could be helpful, he said. Naked short-selling should be banned and the SEC should strictly enforce its uptick rule that helps protect companies from excessive shorting, said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at New York-based brokerage house Avalon Partners. "I've seen plenty of good companies ruined because of naked shorts," Cardillo said. The companies covered by the short-selling ban include a who's who of financial giants, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Corp., student lender Sallie Mae, Charles Schwab Corp. and Berkshire Hathaway Inc. But most of those stocks have fallen in value, along with the broader markets, since the ban went into effect. "At some point you have to let the normal forces of the market" balance out amid the widening financial crisis, said John Coffee, a professor of securities law at Columbia University. "You can't keep on saying that it's a temporary emergency." _____ http://www.cnbc.com/id/27074691
#820693Posté le : le 08-10-2008 07:29:37
Que faire avec 1350000 euros que l'on ne pourrait faire avec 50000 ? Mon Dieu, mon Dieu, vite, il faut sauver mes pepettes. Au fait, comment on "garanti" autant ? C'est pour tout le monde ? D'où va sortir l'argent ? Un pays membre de l'UE peut-il créer des euros...comme ça ...? Ce que m'inspire cette crise : les (gros) actionnaires se sont gavé sur le dos des travailleurs. Maintenant, il faut payer. C'était mon quart d'heure gauchiste alter mondialiste qui rêve de vivre dans une yourte. Merci pour tout ces éclairages, sincèrement.
fj
#820705Posté le : le 08-10-2008 07:48:26
#820648Posté le : le 08-10-2008 00:22:06 A 00H20... A 7H45... SP 982.25 -2.34% NQ 1307.25 -2.19% YM 9317 -2.32%
je ne crois que ce que je vois
#820711Posté le : le 08-10-2008 07:52:20
Citation de : bastien (au 08-10-2008 07:29:37) en général le mec qui vit dans une yourte, il le fait par un tour-opérateur spécialisé, en Mongolie ou en Asie Centrale et c'est un bobo plein aux as.... j'ai pas 1 350 000 euros j'ai simplement voulu dire qu'il ne faut pas se contenter d'évoquer le pire mais agir en conséquence....
Il faut coincer la bulle
#820716Posté le : le 08-10-2008 07:59:48
Citation de : rationnel (au 08-10-2008 07:52:20) Désolé. Ce n'est pas dirigé contre toi. C'est juste une tentative de relativisation maladroite. C'est contre le consumerisme à outrance (vive le crédit : pour ma part, je ne tolère qu'un seul crédit, celui de la maison). C'est contre ceux qui pleurent pour leur argent sans voir qu'il y en a des centaines de milliers (et encore, je suis loin du compte) qui on 10 fois, 100 fois 1000 fois moins (et encore, je suis là aussi loin du compte). Et je me dis que dans cette crise, c'est probablement ceux là qui s'en sortiront le mieux... ils sont déjà habitués... ceci dit sans cynisme aucun. Encore désolé.
fj
#820737Posté le : le 08-10-2008 08:15:10
Impact réel d'une éventuelle baisse concertée des taux dans la situation telle qu'elle est ?
Poudre aux yeux ? cosmétique ? huile sur le feu ?
#820744Posté le : le 08-10-2008 08:21:38
question a chris:
Leap "répond" a la crise par une hausse de taux... Les investisseurs attendent un baisse, et c'est ce que l'on peux envisager avec les derniers propos des directeurs de Bk centrales....Que pense tu de ces deux solution? Si on baisse: creation monetaire et inflation.... Si on monte: retour de l'epargne chez les banques, mais pas d'argent a investir dans l'activité eco....voila ma reflexion...
#820754Posté le : le 08-10-2008 08:31:11
Aujourd'hui il va y avoir de l'ambiance : serrez les fesses et accrochez vous bien
Il n'y a aucun moyen d'empécher l'effondrement d'une bulle spéculative provoquée par la liquidité excessive d'une expansion de crédit
#820755Posté le : le 08-10-2008 08:35:47
Handelsblatt (sous réserve que mes traductions soient correctes):
- Prévision à fin septembre du déficit US pour l'année en cours prévu à 438 MUSD (3.1% PIB) soit 31 MUSD de plus que prévu la fois précédente. Prognose nicht zu halten Riesiges US-Etatloch Das Defizit im US-Haushalt dürfte sich im laufenden Fiskaljahr stärker erhöhen als bislang angenommen. Wie das Congressional Budget Office (CBO) mitteilte, wird sich der Fehlbetrag im Staatshaushalt bis zum Ende des Fiskaljahres am 30. September auf 438 Mrd. Dollar ausweiten; dies entspricht 3,1 Prozent des US-Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP). Damit revidierte das CBO seine vorherige Prognose um 31 Mrd. Dollar nach oben. Im vergangenen Haushaltsjahr hatte sich das Defizit auf 162 Mrd. Dollar beziehungsweise auf 1,2 Prozent des BIP belaufen. Gründe für die starke Ausweitung seien die wegen der Finanzkrise gesunkenen Steuereinnahmen sowie höhere Staatsausgaben vor allem im Verteidigungsbereich. Der US-Haushalt verzeichnete den Angaben zufolge im August ein Defizit von 112 Mrd. Dollar, das waren drei Mrd. Dollar weniger als erwartet. Für September rechnet das CBO mit einem Überschuss von 45 Mrd. Dollar. Wegen des Einlaufens der vierteljährlichen Steuerzahlungen ist ein Haushaltsüberschuss im September nicht ungewöhnlich.
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32.30 €
